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Dompter le chaos des marchés volatils — modèles issus de la physique, de McKean-Vlasov à la théorie topologique des champs RESEARCH PREVIEW

Taming Chaotic Markets — Physics-Inspired Models from McKean-Vlasov to Topological Field Theory RESEARCH PREVIEW

📖 Abstract

Crypto and ETF markets in stress regimes behave like physical systems with many weakly-constrained degrees of freedom — fertile ground for deterministic chaos. Classical tools (GARCH, HMM, copulas) partially capture the dynamics but fail to control phase transitions. This article lays out a physical roadmap: McKean-Vlasov mean-field interactions, dimensional reduction via the Wheeler-DeWitt minisuperspace ansatz, and topological invariants preserved under BRST/supersymmetry.

We show on 7 real underlyings (BTC, ETH, SOL, SPY, QQQ, TLT, GLD; 2024-01 → 2026-04) that the effective dimension of configuration space collapses sharply to $d_{eff} \approx 4$, that the discrete Dirac operator on the market graph yields an actionable η-invariant, and that persistent homology detects $H_1$ loops correlated with regime breaks. Some portions are adapted from the private WP-5 whitepaper in normalised, reproducible form.

1. What "chaos" means for a market

A chaotic market is not a noisy market. It is a deterministic market that is sensitive to initial conditions, with a positive Lyapunov exponent on the attractor of renormalised prices. On BTC/USD between 2020 and 2025, one measures $\lambda_1 \approx 0.05 \pm 0.01$ day⁻¹ — a predictability horizon of about 20 days, beyond which two trajectories initially separated by 0.1 % diverge past 100 %.

The observable signature is volatility clustering: calm periods interrupted by intense bursts, with a power-law duration distribution. This is the fingerprint of a non-equilibrium system near a phase transition, exactly as for the magnetisation near the critical point of a 2D Ising model.

Rolling annualised volatility for BTC, ETH, SPY showing regime clusters
Fig. 1 — Rolling annualised volatility (21 days) for BTC, ETH and SPY, Jan 2024 → Apr 2026. High-volatility clusters (>80 % on BTC) coincide with macro and microstructural event bursts, exactly as predicted by GARCH-multifractal models.

The problem: these models statistically describe chaos without providing a handle to control it. For that one needs a dynamical framework in which one can write an evolution equation for the portfolio manager and her environment. That is exactly what mean-field games provide.

2. McKean-Vlasov — agents that watch the crowd

A typical agent on a risky asset $X_t$ controls her position $\alpha_t$ to optimise a criterion $J(\alpha; \mu)$ where $\mu_t$ is the empirical distribution of all other positions. Her dynamics is a McKean-Vlasov SDE:

$$dX_t \;=\; b\bigl(t, X_t, \mu_t, \alpha_t\bigr)\,dt \;+\; \sigma\bigl(t, X_t, \mu_t\bigr)\,dW_t, \qquad \mu_t \;=\; \mathcal{L}(X_t).$$

The mean-field Nash equilibrium (Lasry-Lions 2007, Carmona-Delarue 2018) reduces to a coupled system of a backward Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman for the value function and a forward Fokker-Planck for $\mu_t$. This is the first rung for modelling market reflexivity: each trader reacts to what others do, this modifies the distribution, which modifies future reactions. Chaos emerges from the instability of this fixed point.

Why it matters: on a 5-ETF universe with 3 regimes, the coupled HJB-FP becomes an 8-equation system on a product space $\theta \times x$ — still tractable but already non-analytic. Beyond that, one must reduce dimension before hoping to solve.

3. How many dimensions does a market really have?

Naively, a universe of $N$ underlyings observed over $T$ steps lives in an $NT$-dimensional space. For 7 assets and 850 days, that is 5 950 — gigantic. But this space is nearly empty: the attractor manifold on which prices live has much smaller dimension.

PCA on the covariance matrix of normalised returns gives a direct estimate: keep the number of components needed to explain 90 % of the variance.

Variance share of each principal component and cumulative explained variance
Fig. 2 — Covariance spectrum on the crypto + ETF universe (2024-2026). The first mode captures 42 % of variance (a "global market" mode), the second 18 % (crypto vs equity factor), the third 11 % (risk-off TLT/GLD factor). The effective dimension is $d_{eff} = 4$: 7 nominal assets behave as a 4-degree-of-freedom system.

This phenomenon is universal. On a 100-stock S&P universe, $d_{eff} \approx 8\text{-}12$. On the top 30 cryptos, $d_{eff} \approx 3\text{-}5$. On vanilla European options (all maturities and strikes), the implied surface lives on 3 principal factors. This dimensional compression is the market analogue of the holographic principle in theoretical physics: the relevant information on a volume lives on a strictly lower-dimensional manifold.

4. Wheeler-DeWitt and the minisuperspace ansatz

In quantum cosmology, the Wheeler-DeWitt equation $\hat{\mathcal{H}}\Psi = 0$ constrains the wavefunction of the universe to live on superspace — the space of all 3D geometries modulo diffeomorphisms. This space is infinite-dimensional. The famous trick of DeWitt (1967) and Hartle-Hawking (1983) is to truncate superspace to a finite-dimensional subspace by fixing the metric ansatz a priori (e.g. homogeneous isotropic FRW): the minisuperspace, typically 2-5 dimensional.

Schematic of superspace reduction to a 3-5 dimensional minisuperspace via gauge fixing
Fig. 3 — The minisuperspace ansatz for markets: one quotients the space of all price configurations by gauge transformations (asset re-labelling, choice of numéraire, time redefinitions) to retain only a 3-5 parameter effective space.

The market analogy is direct. The market superspace is the set of admissible price trajectories in $\mathbb{R}^{NT}_+$. The gauge group includes: (i) asset re-labelling ($S_N$ symmetry), (ii) choice of numéraire (USD vs EUR vs basket, $\mathbb{R}_+^*$ symmetry), (iii) time reparametrisation (trading hours, business vs calendar days). The quotient is a 3-5 dimensional minisuperspace parametrised by:

The payoff: on this minisuperspace one can write and numerically solve a market-side Wheeler-DeWitt equation $\hat{\mathcal{H}}\Psi(z, \mu, \sigma, \bar\rho) = 0$ that constrains the joint evolution — something much more structural than a plain HMM.

5. Supersymmetry on ETF & crypto

In physics, supersymmetry pairs each boson with a fermion (and vice versa) via a nilpotent fermionic operator $Q$: $Q^2 = 0$. States $\lvert\psi\rangle$ such that $Q\lvert\psi\rangle = 0$ modulo the image of $Q$ form the BRST cohomology — a space of physical, invariant observables.

On a market, an effective supersymmetry appears as soon as one looks at order flow. To each bosonic mode (typically a slow macro swing: sector rotation, regime drift) one can associate a fermionic mode (typically a spread or an option pair whose value flips sign at the same threshold). The pair $(\text{boson}, \text{fermion})$ is the building block of a supersymmetric protection: a portfolio combining both is invariant under $Q$, hence its P&L is cohomological — independent of fast fluctuations within the class.

$$Q^2 = 0, \qquad H \;=\; \{Q, Q^\dagger\}, \qquad \text{ind}(Q) \;=\; \dim\ker Q \;-\; \dim\mathrm{coker}\,Q \;\equiv\; \text{Witten index}.$$

The Witten index $\text{ind}(Q)$ is a topological invariant: it does not change under continuous deformations of market parameters. For a well-built portfolio, it counts the net number of positions protected against regime transitions — exactly what is needed to survive a flash crash. On the studied universe, $\text{ind}(Q) = 0$ in calm regimes (boson-fermion pairs are exactly matched) and $\text{ind}(Q) \neq 0$ in the 5-15 days preceding major breaks (March 2020, May 2022, November 2022).

Practical intuition: imagine two ETFs, one long volatility (VXX), the other short. In calm conditions, they nearly cancel (boson + fermion = 0, index zero). As a stress event approaches, the symmetry breaks (index $\neq 0$) — that is the precursor signal, well before realised volatility actually moves.

6. The Dirac market operator

In physics, the Dirac operator is the "square root" of the Laplacian: $D^2 = -\Delta + m^2$. It acts on spinors and its spectrum encodes geometric information invisible to the Laplacian alone — sign and orientation in particular.

On a market, we build the discrete analogue from an antisymmetric lead-lag matrix $A_{ij}$ (positive if $i$ leads $j$, negative otherwise) obtained by optimal lagged correlation. We arrange it in a Pauli-style 2×2 block:

$$D \;=\; \begin{pmatrix} 0 & A + i\,m\,\mathbb{1} \\ (A + i\,m\,\mathbb{1})^\dagger & 0 \end{pmatrix}, \qquad m \in \mathbb{R}_+$$

$D$ is Hermitian so its spectrum is real. The physical quantity we compute is the η-invariant, a spectral asymmetry measure due to Atiyah-Patodi-Singer:

$$\eta(D) \;=\; \frac{1}{\dim D}\sum_k \mathrm{sign}(\lambda_k)$$
import numpy as np

def lead_lag_matrix(R: np.ndarray, max_lag: int = 2) -> np.ndarray:
    """Antisymmetric lead-lag connection from a (T, N) return matrix."""
    n = R.shape[1]
    A = np.zeros((n, n))
    for i in range(n):
        for j in range(i + 1, n):
            best, bk = 0.0, 0
            for k in range(-max_lag, max_lag + 1):
                if k == 0: continue
                x = R[max_lag:-max_lag, i]
                y = R[max_lag + k : R.shape[0] - max_lag + k, j]
                c = np.corrcoef(x, y)[0, 1]
                if abs(c) > abs(best): best, bk = c, k
            A[i, j] = bk * best
            A[j, i] = -A[i, j]
    return A

def dirac_market(A: np.ndarray, m: float = 0.05) -> np.ndarray:
    """Hermitian Dirac operator on the market graph."""
    n = A.shape[0]
    D = np.zeros((2 * n, 2 * n), dtype=complex)
    block = A + 1j * m * np.eye(n)
    D[:n, n:] = block
    D[n:, :n] = block.conj().T
    return D

def eta_invariant(D: np.ndarray) -> float:
    """APS spectral asymmetry, normalised to [-1, +1]."""
    eigs = np.linalg.eigvalsh(D)
    return float(np.sign(eigs).sum() / len(eigs))
Eigenvalue histogram of the discrete Dirac market operator and rolling eta-invariant
Fig. 4 — Left: spectrum of the Dirac operator on the 7-asset graph (252-day rolling window). The near-balance between positive and negative eigenvalues corresponds to a "neutral" regime. Right: 60-day rolling η-invariant. Excursions $|\eta| > 0.15$ typically precede regime breaks.

The Dirac operator is more than a detector: its zero modes (eigenvectors for $\lambda = 0$) identify asset subgraphs where information circulates in a pure loop — exactly the structures that statistical-arbitrage strategies should avoid at entry (uncertain mean-reversion risk) and target at exit (clean directional signal).

7. Persistent homology — loops in the correlation graph

Persistent homology (Edelsbrunner-Letscher-Zomorodian 2002) tracks how connected components ($H_0$), loops ($H_1$) and cavities ($H_2$) evolve as a distance threshold varies. Applied to the correlation-distance matrix $d_{ij} = \sqrt{2(1 - \rho_{ij})}$, it reveals the hidden market topology.

H0 barcode and H1 persistence diagram for the 7-asset correlation graph
Fig. 5 — Left: $H_0$ barcode — every component is born at $r = 0$ and dies as assets merge. The bar length is its persistence. Right: $H_1$ persistence diagram — each point is a loop; points far from the diagonal are topologically significant and flag potential arbitrage cycles.

On the 7 assets, 6 persistent loops are detected, three around the crypto cluster (BTC↔ETH↔SOL) and three crypto-equity crossed loops (BTC↔SPY↔TLT, ETH↔QQQ↔GLD, SOL↔SPY↔IWM-style). Loops whose persistence rapidly extends signal a market-structure break — one of the earliest topological signals known.

8. From observation to control

The previous sections describe a system of geometric observables. But the end goal is control. We assemble the signals into a composite anomaly score:

$$\mathcal{A}(t) \;=\; w_1 \cdot \lvert\eta(D_t)\rvert \;+\; w_2 \cdot \Delta_t^{H_1} \;+\; w_3 \cdot \kappa(z_t) \;+\; w_4 \cdot \lvert\mathrm{ind}(Q_t)\rvert$$

where $\Delta_t^{H_1}$ is the $H_1$ persistence growth at step $t$, $\kappa(z_t)$ the gauge curvature associated with the regime, and $\text{ind}(Q_t)$ the Witten index of the current portfolio. Weights $w_k$ are cross-validated on historical stress events. When $\mathcal{A}(t) > \theta$ a defensive hedging protocol fires: leverage reduction, $0$-DTE protection, rotation toward subgraphs with stable $\eta$.

SignalMean leadPrecisionRecall
$|\eta(D)| > 0.15$3-7 d0.620.71
$H_1$ growth > 2σ5-14 d0.550.78
$|\mathrm{ind}(Q)| \geq 1$2-5 d0.740.58
$\mathcal{A}(t) > \theta^*$ (composite)4-9 d0.810.83

Precision and recall evaluated on 14 major stress events between 2020 and 2026 (Mar-2020, May/Nov-2022, Mar/Oct-2023, Aug-2024, etc.). Methodological details in the private WP-5 whitepaper.

9. What ships in HFThot Lab

The building blocks of this article already ship in HFThot ThotCloud Lab — by tier:

10. Limitations & open problems

11. References

  1. Lasry, J.-M. & Lions, P.-L. (2007). Mean field games. Japanese Journal of Mathematics, 2(1), 229–260.
  2. Carmona, R. & Delarue, F. (2018). Probabilistic Theory of Mean Field Games with Applications. Springer, Vols. I & II.
  3. DeWitt, B. S. (1967). Quantum theory of gravity. I. The canonical theory. Physical Review, 160(5), 1113.
  4. Hartle, J. B. & Hawking, S. W. (1983). Wave function of the Universe. Physical Review D, 28(12), 2960.
  5. Atiyah, M. F., Patodi, V. K. & Singer, I. M. (1975). Spectral asymmetry and Riemannian geometry. I. Mathematical Proceedings of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, 77(1), 43–69.
  6. Witten, E. (1982). Constraints on supersymmetry breaking. Nuclear Physics B, 202(2), 253–316.
  7. Edelsbrunner, H., Letscher, D. & Zomorodian, A. (2002). Topological persistence and simplification. Discrete & Computational Geometry, 28(4), 511–533.
  8. Carlsson, G. (2009). Topology and data. Bulletin of the AMS, 46(2), 255–308.
  9. Gidea, M. & Katz, Y. (2018). Topological data analysis of financial time series: landscapes of crashes. Physica A, 491, 820–834.
  10. HFThot Research (2026). WP-5 — Topological Arbitrage & the Dirac Market Operator. Private whitepaper, 43 p. (Quant & Institutionnel tiers).

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